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AI-Powered Betting Analytics

Every bet gets a grade.

Know before you place.

LineGrade runs 10,000+ Monte Carlo simulations on every bet and returns a letter grade — so you always know your edge before you risk a dollar.

See How It Works

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A+

Trusted by sharp bettors tracking edges across every major sportsbook

Model v4

Bets graded

Last 30 days

A-tier picks

Last 30 days

Share rated A-tier

Last 30 days

Sportsbooks tracked

Live

Live Model Calls

Right now. Before the line moves.

Real A-grade picks our model flagged today — grade logged, edge calculated, game not yet played.

Model runs 24/7. New grades posted before every game.

See Live Grades →

How It Works

From 13 sportsbooks to a single letter grade.

The Model v4 pipeline, end to end. Every step is deterministic, disclosed, and measured against realized results.

01

Odds ingested from 13 books, every 5 minutes

Pinnacle, Bet365, DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars and the rest of the U.S. retail market — sides, spreads, totals, props, futures. Prediction markets and pick'em apps are pulled for context but never graded as picks.

02

Sharp-consensus devigged market anchor

Each book's price is power-devigged (removes favorite-longshot bias), averaged in logit space with sharpness weights — Pinnacle 4×, Bet365 2.5×, sharp U.S. books 1×, soft books lower. The output is a fair, no-vig probability, not a gut number.

03

Deterministic data adjustments

Capped, sample-size-weighted nudges from verified sources: MLB starter form and platoon splits, bullpen fatigue, park factors, live wind and weather; WNBA/NBA minutes trends, pace and rest; team-sport form vs opponent strength. Every adjustment is disclosed on the pick page.

04

Per-segment calibration, weekly self-correction

Every settled result feeds back into the model. For each sport × market × edge tier × odds tier, realized hit rate is compared to predicted probability and a calibration factor pulls future picks toward the truth. Segments with no evidence yet aren't allowed to steer.

05

The publication gate

A pick only publishes at B+ or above if its segment has shown positive expectancy on settled data. Thin markets are shrunk toward the anchor, edges above 8% are capped, and coherence guards prevent both sides of the same line from grading high. C, D, and F are honest "no edge" calls — displayed for transparency, excluded from the record.

06

The grade — A+ through F

Post-gate, every bet is scored by the Kelly Criterion so quality — not just price gap — earns the letter. A+ is a rare, meaningful edge; B+ is the publication floor; C and below are shown so you can see what didn't clear.

07

Logged before tip-off, settled automatically

Every graded pick is written to the public record before its game begins and reconciled against official results on a rolling basis. No selective curation. No hidden losers. Realized hit rate vs breakeven and Closing Line Value are visible on the Track Record page.

08

The honesty is the pitch

LineGrade publishes fewer picks, smaller edges, and more C's than a naïve model. The tradeoff is intentional: the picks that survive the gate are the ones worth acting on — and the ones that don't are still on the page so you can judge for yourself.

The Grade

What the grades mean

Every bet is scored with the Kelly Criterion — quality of the bet, not just the price gap.

A+

Exceptional edge

Kelly ≥ 10%. Rare, high-conviction bets — the top of the board.

A

Strong edge

Kelly ≥ 7%. Meaningful price gap with segment-verified expectancy.

A-

Above-average edge

Kelly ≥ 4.8%. Solid publication-grade play.

B+

Publication floor

Kelly ≥ 2.8%. Also the ceiling for confidence-gated thin markets.

B

Modest edge

Kelly ≥ 1.8%. Small but real.

B-

Marginal edge

Kelly ≥ 1.0%. Lowest tier that enters the public record.

C

No edge

Shown for transparency. Not a recommendation. Excluded from the track record.

D

Slight negative

Line is priced against you. Not a recommendation.

F

Avoid

Clear negative expected value at this price.

Coverage

Coverage across the books you use

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsESPN BetBetRiversPrizePicksUnderdogPolymarketKalshi
NFLNBAMLBNHLMLSPlayer PropsFutures

Track Record

Every grade, logged before tip-off.

DateSportSelectionBookGrade
Loading recent A-tier grades…

See full track record →

Why LineGrade

Why LineGrade stands apart

An honest comparison against how most pick services operate.

Feature
LineGradeBEST
Typical pick services
Model transparency
Win probability, fair price & edge on every pick
Just picks — no math shown
Edge honesty
Edges shrunk & capped by evidence quality
Inflated “lock” claims
Closing Line Value
CLV tracked on every settled pick
Rarely measured
Line shopping
13 sportsbooks + Pinnacle compared per pick
Single book, if any
Pick’em coverage
Underdog & PrizePicks lines compared vs books
Not covered
Prediction markets
Kalshi & Polymarket cross-checks
None
Player & team evidence
Game logs, hit rates, filters + model projection
Basic stats or none
Track record
Public, settled, versioned
Screenshots of winners
Pricing
Free tier · Pro $19 · Sharp $39
$25–$150/month

Comparison reflects how most subscription pick services operate. No guarantees of profit — sports betting always involves risk.

Pricing

Start free. Upgrade when the edge pays for itself.

A single correct A-grade bet at $500 stake returns more than a month of Pro. LineGrade doesn't sell picks — it sells the analysis to make your own. The edge compounds.

Free

$0

3 grades per day (top picks only). Daily top pick via email. Public track record. No credit card required.

Start free
Most popular

Pro

$19/mo

or from $14/mo billed yearly

Unlimited grades across all sports & books. Full pros/cons analysis and fair value odds. Real-time line movement alerts. CSV export. Discord community access.

Get Pro

Sharp

$39/mo

or from $29/mo billed yearly

Everything in Pro. API access (coming soon). Cross-book Sharp Intel edge detection. Model methodology deep-dive. Priority support & early feature access.

Go Sharp

Monthly, quarterly, and yearly billing available. Cancel anytime. Must be 21+ where sports betting is legal. See all billing options →

FAQ

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