AI-Powered Betting Analytics
Every bet gets a grade.
Know before you place.
LineGrade runs 10,000+ Monte Carlo simulations on every bet and returns a letter grade — so you always know your edge before you risk a dollar.
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Trusted by sharp bettors tracking edges across every major sportsbook
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Bets graded
Last 30 days
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A-tier picks
Last 30 days
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Share rated A-tier
Last 30 days
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Sportsbooks tracked
Live
Live Model Calls
Right now. Before the line moves.
Real A-grade picks our model flagged today — grade logged, edge calculated, game not yet played.
Model runs 24/7. New grades posted before every game.
See Live Grades →How It Works
From 13 sportsbooks to a single letter grade.
The Model v4 pipeline, end to end. Every step is deterministic, disclosed, and measured against realized results.
Odds ingested from 13 books, every 5 minutes
Pinnacle, Bet365, DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars and the rest of the U.S. retail market — sides, spreads, totals, props, futures. Prediction markets and pick'em apps are pulled for context but never graded as picks.
Sharp-consensus devigged market anchor
Each book's price is power-devigged (removes favorite-longshot bias), averaged in logit space with sharpness weights — Pinnacle 4×, Bet365 2.5×, sharp U.S. books 1×, soft books lower. The output is a fair, no-vig probability, not a gut number.
Deterministic data adjustments
Capped, sample-size-weighted nudges from verified sources: MLB starter form and platoon splits, bullpen fatigue, park factors, live wind and weather; WNBA/NBA minutes trends, pace and rest; team-sport form vs opponent strength. Every adjustment is disclosed on the pick page.
Per-segment calibration, weekly self-correction
Every settled result feeds back into the model. For each sport × market × edge tier × odds tier, realized hit rate is compared to predicted probability and a calibration factor pulls future picks toward the truth. Segments with no evidence yet aren't allowed to steer.
The publication gate
A pick only publishes at B+ or above if its segment has shown positive expectancy on settled data. Thin markets are shrunk toward the anchor, edges above 8% are capped, and coherence guards prevent both sides of the same line from grading high. C, D, and F are honest "no edge" calls — displayed for transparency, excluded from the record.
The grade — A+ through F
Post-gate, every bet is scored by the Kelly Criterion so quality — not just price gap — earns the letter. A+ is a rare, meaningful edge; B+ is the publication floor; C and below are shown so you can see what didn't clear.
Logged before tip-off, settled automatically
Every graded pick is written to the public record before its game begins and reconciled against official results on a rolling basis. No selective curation. No hidden losers. Realized hit rate vs breakeven and Closing Line Value are visible on the Track Record page.
The honesty is the pitch
LineGrade publishes fewer picks, smaller edges, and more C's than a naïve model. The tradeoff is intentional: the picks that survive the gate are the ones worth acting on — and the ones that don't are still on the page so you can judge for yourself.
The Grade
What the grades mean
Every bet is scored with the Kelly Criterion — quality of the bet, not just the price gap.
Exceptional edge
Kelly ≥ 10%. Rare, high-conviction bets — the top of the board.
Strong edge
Kelly ≥ 7%. Meaningful price gap with segment-verified expectancy.
Above-average edge
Kelly ≥ 4.8%. Solid publication-grade play.
Publication floor
Kelly ≥ 2.8%. Also the ceiling for confidence-gated thin markets.
Modest edge
Kelly ≥ 1.8%. Small but real.
Marginal edge
Kelly ≥ 1.0%. Lowest tier that enters the public record.
No edge
Shown for transparency. Not a recommendation. Excluded from the track record.
Slight negative
Line is priced against you. Not a recommendation.
Avoid
Clear negative expected value at this price.
Coverage
Coverage across the books you use
Track Record
Every grade, logged before tip-off.
| Date | Sport | Selection | Book | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading recent A-tier grades… | ||||
Why LineGrade
Why LineGrade stands apart
An honest comparison against how most pick services operate.
Comparison reflects how most subscription pick services operate. No guarantees of profit — sports betting always involves risk.
Pricing
Start free. Upgrade when the edge pays for itself.
A single correct A-grade bet at $500 stake returns more than a month of Pro. LineGrade doesn't sell picks — it sells the analysis to make your own. The edge compounds.
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3 grades per day (top picks only). Daily top pick via email. Public track record. No credit card required.
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$19/mo
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Unlimited grades across all sports & books. Full pros/cons analysis and fair value odds. Real-time line movement alerts. CSV export. Discord community access.
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or from $29/mo billed yearly
Everything in Pro. API access (coming soon). Cross-book Sharp Intel edge detection. Model methodology deep-dive. Priority support & early feature access.
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