Track Record
Model v5
Every B-and-above sportsbook grade issued, logged before tip-off. Pending picks count as issued and settle automatically. C-tier and lower are "no edge" calls and excluded from the record. Pick'em performance has its own tab — the two records are never mixed.
Sharp-consensus devigged market anchor, deterministic data adjustments (platoon splits, bullpen fatigue, minutes trends, park/weather, form/rest) with sample-size-aware weighting, and a strict publication gate that only lets segments with historically positive expectancy publish at B+ or above. See methodology →
Date range
Grade floor
League
Market type
Current view · Model v5
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Closing Line Value (CLV)
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CLV = movement from our published odds to the closing line, in our pick's direction. Consistently beating close is the strongest leading indicator of long-run edge — win rates take hundreds of picks to stabilize; CLV shows up immediately.
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includes pending
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pushes excluded
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Hit rate by grade
Issued % is share of ALL grades issued in the current filter (including C/D/F, shown as Below B); hit rate excludes pushes and pending.
Calibration recap
Model-predicted win probability vs. what actually happened, per grade, across the v5 era. Delta is in percentage points — negative means the grade over-promised.
Settled pick log
Only settled picks (Win / Loss / Push). Pending picks are counted in aggregates above.
Methodology notes
- American odds are captured at grade time from the recommended book's line for the recommended side; the P&L math uses that snapshot, not live odds.
- Two units bases (sportsbook table only): Flat 1u = every pick risks 1 unit (what "follow every pick equally" returns); Model sizing = the analyst's recommended unit size per pick.
- Pick'em is reported in its own tab. Leg hit rates use B-and-above pick'em projections; slip P&L uses real saved parlay slips at each slip's actual multiplier and wager. Pick'em legs are not mixed into the sportsbook units column.
- Hit rate excludes pushes and pending picks. One pick per market per game — the model's highest-graded line and side (tiebroken by best price). A game contributes at most one moneyline, one spread, and one total. Player props keep one row per (player, stat, day); pick'em keeps one row per (player, canonical stat, day).
Full model analytics are Sharp-only
Unlock unit ROI, CLV, Kelly sizing, and fair prices on every grade.